Too Much about Too Little?

My, my but I have neglected this blog! No new post since the 9th of November. My excuse is that it has been difficult to find a subject to sink my teeth into as it were.

Yes, there is health care reform. And the latest flap about cancer screens being done too soon and too often. I have to smile on that last one because I blogged about that already. And I have blogged about the health care debate until it has made me a bit sick.

My subject for the morning is polls. Remember where there used to be just one - the Gallup Poll? Now it seems every talking head has a poll to quote from their desk. Great! Especially since they don't all agree. Polls can have different results for a number of reasons (I actually took a class in this at college). The big variance can be in who you ask. Needless to say Fox News Network is not calling liberals about their feelings on our Democrat president.

Another variant can be how you phrase the question. "When did you stop beating your wife?" is not fairly stated because it assumes you beat her. So "What is the most upsetting part of the President's agenda?" is equally unfair for much the same reasons.

Then there is how you crunch the numbers you obtain. And that silly disclaimer nobody reads - plus or minus a statistical error of 3 percent.

All that aside what I find so absolutely stunning about this endless chatter that President Obama has fallen below 50% approval rating on the Gallup poll (see previous sentence about statistical error) is that the previous president hovered for months and months (maybe years) between 20 and 23% and nothing much was said.

When I worked in radio there was this phrase, "Must be a slow news day." Anything could be the lead off of the news at the top of the hour on a slow news day. Even the fire department rescuing a kitten in a tree though that is more a visual for the television media. So I think so much is being made about the poll numbers because all those talking heads with 24/7 to fill are making a lot about some silly polls. Just like I am here.

I am Totally Confused

Everyday I read the polls. Remember when there used to be just the Gallup Poll? Oh, that it were so easy these days. There must be a hundred different polls out there. And then there are these averages of polls. The New York Times with Really Clear Politics does this and so does CNN with its Poll of Polls.

I too statistics. I know what proper polling technique is and I don't think all of these do it right or there would not be such variance. As if to prove me right I got this poll call yesterday. A national one. Not a state one. I get lots of those. Not as many since the primary is over but being a registered Democrat in a Red State gets me some not always welcome attention. Which is why this national phone call had me scratching my head.

"How sure are you that you will vote in this election?"

"Positive."

"Will you vote early?"

"If I find the gas money and time to drive to the county court house an hour and half from here."

"How sure are you that you will be voting for John McCain?"

"I am absolutely positive that I will not be voting for John McCain.

"You won't be voting for John McCain?

"Correct. I absolutely will not be voting for John McCain."

"Thank you for your time."

After we hung up I wondered why they would call a Democrat in this particular poll which was obviously to boost McCain poll numbers. The questions were not blind and her tone was not unbiased or neutral. I also wonder if they put a check in "will be voting for McCain" just because they didn't have a box for "absolutely positive I will not."

Sometimes it can be fun living in a Red State. Especially one that has just been painted Blue. And today I got called by the Obama Campaign and I am going to be an official Obama Poll Watcher. I am wearing my antique American Flag lapel pin which belonged to my grandmother. It has 48 stars. Sorry Hawaii but I just did not want to wear a star for Alaska. I am so embarrassed by them.