Sunday, January 10, 2010

The Emperor's New Financial Statement.



I have friends that are taking Mandarin Chinese lessons because they say the handwriting is on the wall: China will own the world. There are so many levels to reject this on. First being that no nation owns the world; A few rich mega billionaires do. We are just allowed feudal occupancy at the foot of the castle walls. You know? Where they dump the slops.

And then there is economics. Sure, it looks as if they have all the bank statements in their favor. We alone owe them trillions. But frankly it is a bad debt. If they called it due at this minute they would only get mere pennies on the yen. And they know that so they just lend us more. World economy is a house of cards. It all rests on the premise that the participants will not say it is all false. Like in the story The Emperor's New Clothes.

And frankly, there is China. So very much could go wrong there: Bird flu, People's Revolution, Mega Earthquakes, massive deaths because of the pollution like what happened in London with the burning of coal. Katrina did not help our economy at all and I doubt seriously another major earthquake or epidemic would help China.

But I seem to be in the minority about my thoughts on China. I wondered, frankly, if I was merely in denial. Then came this wonderful article by the man, James S. Chanos, who heralded the fall of Enron. Remember them? New York Times in its article Contrarian Investor Sees Economic Crash in China, states that Mr. Chanos is warning that China's hyper-stimulated economy is headed for a crash, rather than the sustained boom that most economists predict. He even suspects that Beijing is cooking its books, faking, among other things, its eye-popping growth rates of more than 8 percent. "Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses," Chanos said in a recent appearance on CNBC. "And there's no bigger credit excess than in China."

One of the things that caught us off guard at the onset of WWII was the lack of munition factories. We even purchased our gun sights from Germany, a practice we continued through part of that war. We had to manically convert auto plants to make tanks and airplanes. It is a credit to the American people that we could do that so quickly. But that was another generation. What do we make for ourselves now? What do we even have the knowledge to make for ourselves?

If the house of cards, that is China, falls what will we have to learn to live without? Anyone for a class on spinning yarn? Or lighting one match fires? Opps, no match fires?

7 comments:

  1. Yep...what has been taught to the younger generation???...by the jars setting around the stores, with signs that say "Please donate, to teach people "HOW TO READ" fortells of a generation or 3 that have been dummied down. All they'll be able to produce is Methane! oh yeah...and more just like 'em...There are many retired Teachers...emmm...that should be ashamed...surely, some would Have to feel like a Thief every time a retirement check is cashed.
    *sigh*

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  2. Wow, where to start on my comment. Well, to begin, you are so right about China's economy having had no other direction to go. Much the same can be said for India's, although their situation is a bit different. I agree that the Chinese government is probably playing fast and loose with a lot more than just numbers. And as Shers pointed out, so much of their growth is simply overgrowth that may very well lead to serious consequences for their people and the world. Remember during the Climate Summit how they did not want to allow anyone to audit the "progress" they said they would make in cleaning up their CO2 output.

    Now, about the "Anonymous" comment, I do agree that we have done a huge disservice to younger generations with the attitude that they have to have everything done for them. But that is not primarily due to the Teachers so badly disparaged. I am a Recovering Teacher, and the majority of the teachers I worked with were dedicated and hard working. The problem we have faced is multifaceted - a plethora of "experts," most of whom have never been in a classroom, who take valuable time to expound on the latest "miracle method" of instruction. I don't know how many of these I sat through in workshops and seminars (required by the district) only to learn that I could best teach a group of 6-10 kids at a time while someone else controlled the other 25 in the classroom. Oh, and it also helped to have a half dozen or so other teacher sitting around watching. Not once did I see one of these "experts" try to take on an entire classroom at once with no outside help. And let's not forget about the administrators at all levels who were more concerned about protecting their own butts than dealing with real issues. Oh, and the kids who have been taught from an early age that they don't really have to try, because they won't be allowed to "fail" (there have even been districts that have talked about getting rid of the 'F' grade) because it might hurt their precious little self-esteem. These kids then grow up with the attitude that the world owes them everything just because they are here. No, most of the teachers I have worked with will 'retire' to a new career just to make ends meet, and when they get their retirement check they will feel cheated because they know they could have done so much more if they had been allowed to.

    Just MHO.

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  3. What do we make? We make really usefull things like Ipods and nine million different types of cell phones oh wait, we only invent those, they are made in china. OOppps

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  4. At a pinch I could make socks having worked in a sock factory before it was down closed and sold lock, stock, and knitting machines to China in the eighties;)

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  5. Let me make one think perfectly clear. I was never my intent to slam teachers. Nor did I mention no child left behind which has left our entire country behind the rest of the world.

    I blame our culture which has gone from revering hard labor to worshiping investment bankers and think tanks and corporations. Where did that get us?

    GW Bush and his cronies thought success for America was in being the brains behind imports and mega deals rather than the holders of patents and actual makers of products. They gave huge tax incentives to export factories and jobs overseas. We pay CEO's mega billions in bonuses and our teachers and scientists and inventors almost nothing.

    AND I blame the parents. It was my mother that taught me to knit. My father that taught me to use tools in his workshop. It made my thirsty for knowledge on how things were made. Obviously that has to be another blog.

    Everyone missed the point. Sorry teachers this was not about you.

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  6. The days of teaching a man to fish have gone!

    Whoopee says the 'big man' - let's send everything outside to be made by cheap labour and to hell with those that elected us. they're on the breadline? So what! "I'm alright Jack'.!!!

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  7. The best thing a teacher can teach is to leave the student knowing he is ignorant.
    Twenty years ago when writing for myself a local teacher asked me who taught me to use a computer.
    I gave her the information shown in the top paragraph.
    If a teacher cannot inspire, the teacher has failed.
    Humans are not Parrots even though some professions are filled with them

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